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Emerging trends are gradually reshaping the market environment
Release time:
2025-03-01
Starting from 2023, the Chinese heavy-duty truck market will enter a new stage, with the overall market gradually bottoming out and demand tending towards stability. Although bidding farewell to rapid growth, several emerging trends are gradually reshaping the market environment, bringing new opportunities and challenges: diversification of power types, exploration and landing of autonomous driving research and development, export growth, and price pressure.
In 2024, the Chinese economy achieved a growth rate of 5%, while the growth rate in 2022 was only 3%. However, according to McKinsey's analysis of various economic scenarios, it is expected that the market will not recover to the sales level of nearly 1.6 million units in 2020 in the short term; On the contrary, it may stabilize at around 800000 units (excluding exports). The reason is that the growth rate of the Chinese economy and downstream markets has slowed down; The stable development of China's railway transportation industry has replaced some of the demand for road transportation; And with the increasing maturity of technology, the quality and durability of heavy-duty trucks have improved, extending the replacement cycle.
At the same time, the importance of exports is becoming increasingly prominent. In 2024, driven by both supply and demand, the export volume continued to rise by nearly 9% year-on-year, reaching about 293000 units, accounting for more than 30% of the total market sales. To cope with the increasingly fierce domestic competition under the influence of demand and production capacity, Chinese automakers have also shifted their strategic focus to the global market.
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